Weights and Measures

Early last season we rolled into West London for our third game, fresh off two excellent wins in our first two fixtures. Gareth Ainsworth's Queens Park Rangers looked pretty easy prey. QPR had been in free fall since Michael Beale left the previous season. They'd just barely avoided relegation and Ainsworth looked a clownish figure at Loftus Road.

It was, objectively speaking, one of our easier fixtures. That version of QPR deservedly drifted into 23rd place before the Ainsworth era was finally euthanised. But easier almost never means easy. For all their flaws QPR went at the game with real intensity and had big weapons in Sinclair Armstrong's pace and in the endeavour and athleticism of their wing backs Kenneth Pahl and Paul Smyth. Before Conor Chaplin settled the game (from prone position, the Sarmiento prototype), Armstrong had rattled the inside of the post and forced a fine save from Vas Hladky.

After the game we got some murmurs of discontent. The performance wasn't good enough, we should be beating these comfortably. We all know the lines. Yet despite being the second-best team in the league very few of our away games last season were "comfortable". Only once (Millwall), did a home team obediently roll over for us.

All this is to say I am by no means a man who expects comfort on my travels. There is nothing more perilous for morale than pencilling in points at other likely strugglers. There’s no easy meat in this league and a point at Southampton was always going to be an acceptable result for our still very transitional team. That Southampton versus Ipswich was a game of tension and fine margins should surprise no-one.

Nevertheless, the precise way it unfolded did confound my expectations somewhat. Everything I'd heard and seen about Saints had them down as specialists in "sterile domination". Here they were, top of the charts for possession and rock bottom for goals scored, so the expectation was that they'd pass endlessly in front of us and we'd look to hurt them by being quick in transition when we pinched the ball.

In the first half the scripts seemed to get flipped. We threw energy into pressing the life out of them and within those early minutes it almost paid instant dividends. Seconds in and a poor header from Jan Bednarek had Southampton under pressure as Liam Delap began throwing his weight around. An offside flag briefly gave Southampton possession, but scruffy play immediately returned it to the Blues in midfield.

Within the first two minutes Ipswich had turned the ball over five times, most notably when Omari Hutchinson intercepted Lallana's backwards pass and slipped the ball right to Wes Burns. Burns promptly lofted a cross to the far post where Sammie Szmodics had made a clever run. Szmodics missed, but Southampton immediately played themselves into trouble again, Flynn Downes fortunate to get a free kick after debutant Jens Cajuste nipped in to pick his pocket inside the penalty area.

Southampton lengthened their passes to get away from their own goal. A long straight one went over Dara O'Shea and forced his partner Jacob Greaves to stretch in to clear the ball, then a long diagonal found Ryan Fraser, whose cross was twice inadequately cleared, first by O'Shea, then by Axel Tuanzebe. Tuanzebe’s blocked pass found its way to Adam Lallana, who had space to arrow a flat pass close enough to Greaves to tempt the centre back into a compromising lunge, creating danger that Leif Davis failed to anticipate. Teenager Tyler Dibling turned sharply, gave Aro Muric the eyes and then Southampton the lead.

The goal might have steadied Southampton's nerves somewhat, but you wouldn't have guessed it from the next 15 minutes, which they largely spent penned into their own final third, defending their box from a succession of crosses, corners and long throws. Eventually Aaron Ramsdale engineered a little tactical timeout, which seemed to restore their composure, such that they didn't face another shot until the 44th minute.

In the meantime, Saints nearly profited from the kind of trap that they've often stumbled into themselves. Szmodics looked to lay the ball inside, Delap lost his duel and the ball broke to Dibling with his baby face and Jack Grealish aesthetic. Impetuous youth, he eschewed the extra pass and looked to hit his forward early, splitting O'Shea and Greaves with a slide rule pass that sent Cameron Archer away. Archer was strong, quick, but indecisive and ended up too wide to finish after rounding Muric.

Ipswich finished the half with a flurry, profiting (spoiler alert) whenever Southampton got too anxious about having something to protect. Saints guarded their half-time lead with five defenders deep in their penalty area, blocking efforts by Delap and Cajuste, before depending on Ramsdale to keep out further shots from Davis and Hutchinson.

Forty-five minutes where you felt we'd let ourselves be led into traps, pushing forward enthusiastically against a team that probably just needed to be given enough rope to hang themselves, then being sloppy ourselves when defending in transition.

The latter was a theme that continued in the second half. Maybe Southampton need a pep talk from Martin every 20 minutes or so to keep them from collapsing into anxiety. When they’re not in their own heads, they’re a competent outfit. They came out second half having re-found whatever emotional equilibrium had deserted them immediately before the break and managed the game well. Suddenly we were chasing possession against a team happy to keep the ball. As Ipswich threw numbers forward to chase an equaliser Southampton's counter-attacks increased in threat and really Martin's team really should have finished us off, Cameron Archer spurning two further presentable openings.

Substitutions didn't especially swing things our way, Jack Clarke couldn’t get on the ball and wherever we put him Omari still seemed to try too hard to do it all himself. With the help of referee Sam Allison's very low bar for fouls the game got ever more disrupted until the clock struck 90.

Just as I was making peace with the loss, Southampton seemed to dig deep inside themselves to find some nerves. Hemmed into their own penalty area, they invited shots and crosses. Morsy had first go from a short free kick. Southampton bundled the ball clear for a throw. They cleared the resulting throw-in as far as Jack Taylor, who was having a productive cameo. His through ball found Jack Clarke, whose dinked cross allowed George Hirst to bring another good save from Ramsdale.

There was noise, momentum and pressure building before the resulting corner. In it went. Ben Brereton Díaz’s clearing header made it only to Morsy. Unlike Southampton’s players, Sam is utterly nerveless, so no panic here, he just took a good first touch and got a decent shot on target. A handy deflection undid all that Saints control in an instant

The away end directed "you're gonna cry in a minute" at one particularly aggro Hampshire cherub, seen ranting behind a line of stewards, but you suspect Russell Martin must have been on the verge of tears too. We might have recklessly pencilled this in as three points, but after four defeats Southampton must have circled it in biro and scrawled “WIN OR ELSE” in capital letters on their calendar.

That’s Matchday Five done and I can’t say I’m much closer to understanding the trajectory of this team. Though, as MOTD keep reminding us, we are yet to win a game, we have had three acceptable results. Three draws may only be worth the same points as one win, but it’s preferable to take something from 60 per cent of our games rather than nothing from 80 per cent as far as I’m concerned. In terms of points and results, we are doing fine thus far.

That said, none of the three draws have come with performances that were truly convincing. In all three, the majority of the big chances went to the opposition (Southampton 4 to 3, Brighton 3 to 1, Fulham 2 to 1). The underlying statistics for our season to date make for ugly reading – 20th for big chances created, for shots on target, for xG created, for touches in the opposition box, for xG conceded. Even excluding the games with Man City and Liverpool the attacking statistics don’t look that much prettier. 

We have done some things well and some things badly, but nothing so well or so badly to swing me towards either total confidence or despair. Last week I praised our defending but thought we weren’t nearly effective enough when we did occasionally turn the ball over in promising situations. Against Fulham we showed we could get on top of the general flow of the game, but couldn’t turn dominant phases into shooting opportunities (or prevent defensive phases from resulting in chances).

On Saturday, though trailing and not scoring for 90 minutes tends to put the focus on the attack, we still created a respectable haul of good chances for a Premier League away game. However, we seemed to drop off alarmingly from the high defensive standard we set at Brighton. As a Luke Woolfenden “stan” I could not help but be wistful for the way we coped with similar challenges chasing games home and away against Leicester last season. Maintaining order with a high line proved a different type of problem to defending our box against Brighton and Southampton should have extended their lead.   

Perhaps part of my problem is expecting a consistent upward curve. Historians use the word “whiggish” to critique the presentation of history as a continuous and constant journey from an ignorant and oppressive past to a progressive and enlightened present. Progress (and decline) is more complicated than that in history and, of course, in football. Reconstructing Ipswich Town as a Premier League team involves solving a dozen different problems and each solution requires a lot of fine details sinking into a lot of new heads. It probably isn’t that surprising that the defence works efficiently one game but not the next, that controlling one aspect leaves another aspect more exposed. We should expect some things to go well in fits and starts for a little while.

In the mean time I’m still left wondering. How do you measure the progress this group is making?

Omari Hutchinson v Southampton

Minutes 90

Shots 1

Accurate passes 33/37 (89%)

Chances created 3

xG 0.03

xG on target 0.37

expected assists 0.21

Shot accuracy 1/1 (100%)

Touches 60

Touches in the opposition box 3

Successful dribbles 3/6 (50%)

Passes into final third 2

Accurate crosses 2/4 (50%)

Accurate long balls 2/2 (100%)

Dispossessed 2

Tackles won 0/1 (0%)

Interceptions 3

Defensive actions 6

Recoveries 2

Ground duels won 5/12 (42%)

Was fouled 1

Fouls 2